Kitakyushuvs
Matsumoto Yamaga
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 8/30/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kitakyushu · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kitakyushu 1-1 Matsumoto Yamaga
Original prediction
Kitakyushu
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.51 | 36.1% | 40.1% | 4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.2% | 27.8% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.53 | 35.7% | 32.1% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.21 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Kitakyushu
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
Kitakyushu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20