Kitakyushuvs
Kagoshima United
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 9/26/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kagoshima United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kitakyushu 1-1 Kagoshima United
Original prediction
Kagoshima United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.64 | 19.3% | 21.8% | 2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 24.4% | 24.5% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 1.60 | 56.2% | 53.8% | -2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.67 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–210%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–39%
Predicted outcome
Kagoshima United
Probability
53.8%
Model confidence
53.8%
Kagoshima United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40