Kitakyushuvs
Gainare Tottori
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 9/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kitakyushu · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kitakyushu 2-4 Gainare Tottori
Original prediction
Kitakyushu
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 41.9% | 39.9% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.0% | 26.9% | -0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.89 | 31.1% | 33.2% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Kitakyushu
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Kitakyushu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20