Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd
Saturday, 1 August 202616:30Updated today
Kirchanschöring

Kirchanschöring

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W
vs
16:30
1880 Wasserburg

1880 Wasserburg

Away
GoalVio prediction
41% confidence
Kirchanschöring(41%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Win probability
Kirchanschöring
41%
Draw
28%
1880 Wasserburg
31%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 2.53 xG for Kirchanschöring and 0.87 xG for 1880 Wasserburg. 1880 Wasserburg's projected xG of 0.87 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 2-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. The xG distribution suggests Kirchanschöring will score, but 1880 Wasserburg's attacking output falls below the threshold the model requires to project both teams scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 3.41 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 2-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. The probability grid is dominated by scorelines of two goals or fewer, with the over 2.5 market requiring a result that sits outside the model's most likely outcomes.

xG for (Kirchanschöring)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (Kirchanschöring)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
KirchanschöringKirchanschöring
W

Probability breakdown

41% confidence
Kirchanschöring41%
Draw28%
1880 Wasserburg31%

Kirchanschöring leads with 41% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Kirchanschöring Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-1

Kirchanschöring host 1880 Wasserburg in Oberliga - Bayern Süd. Kirchanschöring have recorded WWLLLD in recent matches while 1880 Wasserburg arrive with a run of LLDWLL.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 2.53 expected goals for Kirchanschöring against 0.87 for 1880 Wasserburg — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: ⚽ Attacking Efficiency Kirchanschöring have averaged 1.62 goals per game recently while 1880 Wasserburg have managed 1.22. Kirchanschöring carry the sharper attacking edge — a factor the model weighs in its Kirchanschöring win projection.
: ⚠️ Upset Risk 1880 Wasserburg have won 1 of their last 8 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While Kirchanschöring carry the stronger underlying metrics, 1880 Wasserburg's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

Kirchanschöring are generating a dominant xG advantage — 2.53 projected against 0.87 for 1880 Wasserburg. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 1.66 is the clearest signal in the model that Kirchanschöring are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: Kirchanschöring's projection depends on converting chances into goals. If 1880 Wasserburg defend deep, absorb pressure, and hit on the counter, the match could end differently than the model projects — particularly if Kirchanschöring fail to score in the first half.

Risk factors

  • Kirchanschöring have been conceding 1.96 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Recent form

Kirchanschöring

Kirchanschöring

W
@ Sportfreunde Schwaig
16 May 2026
32

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Kirchanschöring vs 1880 Wasserburg?

GoalVio's model predicts Kirchanschöring to win with 41% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Kirchanschöring vs 1880 Wasserburg?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Kirchanschöring vs 1880 Wasserburg?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Kirchanschöring vs 1880 Wasserburg?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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