Kilmarnockvs
Motherwell
COMPLETEDScotland · Premiership · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Motherwell · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kilmarnock 3-2 Motherwell
Original prediction
Motherwell
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 12:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.16 | 29.5% | 27.9% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 26.0% | 24.9% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.10 | 44.4% | 47.2% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Motherwell
Probability
47.2%
Model confidence
47.2%
Motherwell has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80