Kilmarnockvs
Heart Of Midlothian
COMPLETEDScotland · Premiership · 9/19/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Heart Of Midlothian · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kilmarnock 1-1 Heart Of Midlothian
Original prediction
Heart Of Midlothian
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.54 | 20.6% | 16.7% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.94 | 23.8% | 20.2% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 1.68 | 55.6% | 63.1% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.94 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–39%
Predicted outcome
Heart Of Midlothian
Probability
63.1%
Model confidence
63.1%
Heart Of Midlothian has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00