Kilmarnockvs
Aberdeen
COMPLETEDScotland · League Cup · 9/12/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aberdeen · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kilmarnock 1-1 Aberdeen
Original prediction
Aberdeen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.71 | 34.0% | 28.4% | -5.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.9% | 26.3% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.42 | 38.1% | 45.3% | 7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.30 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Aberdeen
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Aberdeen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20