Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kiffen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kiffen 3-3 GBK
Original prediction
Kiffen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 16:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 49.0% | 42.1% | -6.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.11 | 22.0% | 25.3% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 3.12 | 29.0% | 32.6% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.11 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Kiffen
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Kiffen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KiffenWWWLW
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
GBKWWWLD
GF 19 · GA 11 · avg 3.80/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
KiffenGBK
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
2.16xG1.84