Khovd Westernvs
Deren
COMPLETEDMongolia · Premier League · 10/1/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Deren · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (7%), 2-2 (7%), 1-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Khovd Western 1-5 Deren
Original prediction
Deren
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 09:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 35.00 | 2.7% | 22.7% | 20.0 pts |
| Draw | 11.70 | 8.0% | 20.3% | 12.3 pts |
| Away | 1.04 | 89.4% | 57.1% | -32.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.04 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-32.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–27%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.1–37%
Predicted outcome
Deren
Probability
57.1%
Model confidence
57.1%
Deren has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Khovd WesternL
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/3.00
BTTS 1/1O2.5 1/1
DerenWW
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 5.00/1.00
BTTS 1/2O2.5 2/2
Khovd WesternDeren
66.7Attack100.0
0.0Defence66.7
0.0Form100.0
23.7Power89.7
1.89xG2.84