Khovdvs
Ulaanbaatar
COMPLETEDMongolia · Premier League · 9/30/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ulaanbaatar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-3 (7%), 1-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Khovd 0-4 Ulaanbaatar
Original prediction
Ulaanbaatar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 09:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 16.63 | 5.5% | 26.3% | 20.7 pts |
| Draw | 10.22 | 9.0% | 20.0% | 11.0 pts |
| Away | 1.08 | 85.4% | 53.7% | -31.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.08 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-31.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–37%
- 3.1–26%
Predicted outcome
Ulaanbaatar
Probability
53.7%
Model confidence
53.7%
Ulaanbaatar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 4.00/4.00
GF 17 · GA 9 · avg 3.40/1.80