Khon Kaen Unitedvs
BG Pathum United
COMPLETEDThailand · FA Cup · 10/21/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
BG Pathum United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Khon Kaen United 1-0 BG Pathum United
Original prediction
BG Pathum United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 9 October 2026 at 17:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.50 | 16.3% | 33.4% | 17.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.89 | 23.1% | 26.3% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 1.48 | 60.6% | 40.3% | -20.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
BG Pathum United
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
BG Pathum United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60