Khimik Dzerzhinskvs
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 4 · 10/11/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Khimik Dzerzhinsk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 3-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 5-0 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
Original prediction
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 18:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 58.0% | 54.7% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.00 | 23.0% | 23.8% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 4.81 | 19.1% | 21.4% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.3–09%
Predicted outcome
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
Probability
54.7%
Model confidence
54.7%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40