Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Khatlon are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Istiqlol are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Istiqlol hold an 18.5-point power-rating edge (50.2 v 68.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.0% in the Vysshaya Liga, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 34% BTTS chance and 25% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40