Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Khalidiya · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Khalidiya 3-1 A'Ali
Original prediction
Khalidiya
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.34 | 67.6% | 49.4% | -18.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.48 | 20.2% | 25.7% | 5.5 pts |
| Away | 7.44 | 12.2% | 24.9% | 12.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Khalidiya
Probability
49.4%
Model confidence
49.4%
Khalidiya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KhalidiyaWWLWW
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
A'AliDLWWL
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
KhalidiyaA'Ali
100.0Attack33.3
33.3Defence66.7
100.0Form33.3
80.3Power45.3
1.69xG1.13