Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Valerenga · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
KFUM Oslo 2-1 Valerenga
Original prediction
Valerenga
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.84 | 32.9% | 36.4% | 3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 26.0% | 27.0% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.26 | 41.2% | 36.6% | -4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Valerenga
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Valerenga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KFUM OsloWWWLL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ValerengaDWLDL
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
KFUM OsloValerenga
39.7Attack54.0
44.4Defence31.7
39.7Form36.5
43.5Power41.9
1.77xG1.65