Kettering Townvs
Worcester City
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kettering Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kettering Town 1-3 Worcester City
Original prediction
Kettering Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 49.8% | 41.8% | -8.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.1% | 27.8% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 3.48 | 26.1% | 30.5% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–07%
Predicted outcome
Kettering Town
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Kettering Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40