Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
UCD · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Kerry are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while UCD are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWWLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and UCD hold a 6.3-point power-rating edge (49.8 v 56.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.4% in the First Division, while UCD holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
UCD
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
14.4%
UCD has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60