First DivisionFirst Division
Friday, 24 July 2026Last updated 10:09
Kerry

Kerry

Home
D
21
Full time
Finn Harps

Finn Harps

Away
L
Mounthawk Park
GoalVio prediction
46% confidence
Kerry(46%)
Most likely exact score2-0
Win probability
Kerry
46%
Draw
27%
Finn Harps
27%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Kerry
73
Finn Harps
9
Defence
Kerry
27
Finn Harps
66
Momentum
Kerry
33
Finn Harps
0
Danger (xG)
Kerry
1.80
Finn Harps
0.00
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Kerry)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (Finn Harps)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Kerry)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Finn Harps)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
KerryKerry
DDLWW
Finn HarpsFinn Harps
LLWDL

Probability breakdown

46% confidence
Kerry46%
Draw27%
Finn Harps27%

Kerry leads with 46% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

Share this

Analysis

Match insights

Kerry head into this in First Division fixture at Mounthawk Park in mixed form (D), while Finn Harps arrive in mixed form (L). Kerry have a 0% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 0% for Finn Harps over 1 games.

The model rates Kerry's attack at 73/100 against a 66/100 Finn Harps defence, and Finn Harps's attack at 9/100 against a 27/100 Kerry backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

Kerry have won 2 of their last 3 home fixtures, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game at home. Finn Harps have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 2 away matches. They average 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between Kerry and Finn Harps in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Kerry to win with 46% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-0. Win probabilities: Kerry 4602%, Draw 2697%, Finn Harps 2700%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Kerry

Kerry

D
vs Shelbourne
17 Jul 2026
22
D
@ Wexford
10 Jul 2026
22
L
@ Treaty United
3 Jul 2026
12
W
vs Longford Town
26 Jun 2026
21
W
vs Wexford
15 May 2026
21
Finn Harps

Finn Harps

L
vs Bray Wanderers
17 Jul 2026
01
L
vs Treaty United
10 Jul 2026
01
W
vs Wexford
3 Jul 2026
10
D
@ Athlone Town
26 Jun 2026
11
L
@ Treaty United
15 May 2026
03

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Kerry vs Finn Harps?

GoalVio's model predicts Kerry to win with 46% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Kerry vs Finn Harps?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-0.

Will both teams score in Kerry vs Finn Harps?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Kerry vs Finn Harps?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

Explore more predictions

About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
View full accuracy stats →
Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more