Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kerry FC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kerry FC 1-0 Wexford
Original prediction
Kerry FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 40.3% | 46.5% | 6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.0% | 26.7% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.75 | 32.7% | 26.8% | -5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Kerry FC
Probability
46.5%
Model confidence
46.5%
Kerry FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Kerry FCLLWWD
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
WexfordWLWLL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Kerry FCWexford
40.6Attack38.5
59.4Defence51.0
43.8Form41.7
49.6Power45.8
1.29xG0.85