Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cork City · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kerry FC 1-1 Cork City
Original prediction
Cork City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.45 | 36.8% | 29.4% | -7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 26.8% | 28.3% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.47 | 36.4% | 42.4% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.36 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–113%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Cork City
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Cork City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Kerry FCWWWLL
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Cork CityWLLWL
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Kerry FCCork City
41.9Attack69.5
61.9Defence67.6
48.6Form70.5
52.5Power69.2
0.83xG1.53