Kerry FCvs
Bray Wanderers
COMPLETEDIreland · First Division · 9/11/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bray Wanderers · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kerry FC 0-1 Bray Wanderers
Original prediction
Bray Wanderers
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.75 | 32.9% | 36.3% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.2% | 24.4% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.21 | 40.9% | 39.3% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Bray Wanderers
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Bray Wanderers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60