Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kenya · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kenya 1-1 Eritrea
Original prediction
Kenya
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 68.2% | 40.7% | -27.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.35 | 21.2% | 27.4% | 6.2 pts |
| Away | 8.71 | 10.6% | 32.0% | 21.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.35 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Kenya
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
Kenya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KenyaWDLLW
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
EritreaWWL
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 1.33/0.67
BTTS 1/3O2.5 1/3
KenyaEritrea
50.0Attack66.7
50.0Defence83.3
50.0Form100.0
50.0Power86.5
1.05xG1.35