Kelty Heartsvs
Edinburgh City
COMPLETEDScotland · League Two · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Edinburgh City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kelty Hearts 1-3 Edinburgh City
Original prediction
Edinburgh City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.54 | 35.8% | 31.6% | -4.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.1% | 22.0% | -5.1 pts |
| Away | 2.45 | 37.1% | 46.4% | 9.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Edinburgh City
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
46.4%
Edinburgh City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60