Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Keflavik · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-2
Keflavik are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Stjarnan are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Keflavik hold a 2.1-point power-rating edge (44.4 v 42.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.4% in the Úrvalsdeild, while Keflavik holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 83% BTTS chance and 86% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Keflavik
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Keflavik has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 10 · GA 14 · avg 2.00/2.80