Kedus Giorgisvs
Sheger Ketema
COMPLETEDEthiopia · Premier League · 10/26/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Kedus Giorgis 0-0 Sheger Ketema, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Kedus Giorgis 2-2 Sheger Ketema
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 22:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.37 | 38.1% | 34.8% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.58 | 35.0% | 33.1% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.35 | 26.9% | 32.1% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.58 · Draw 1.58 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.9 pts
Projected Score
Kedus Giorgis 0–0 Sheger Ketema
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.1%
Model confidence
34.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Kedus GiorgisDLDWW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Sheger KetemaLDWLD
GF 1 · GA 3 · avg 0.20/0.60
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
Kedus GiorgisSheger Ketema
33.3Attack11.1
55.6Defence88.9
22.2Form44.4
40.2Power51.1
0.80xG0.80