Kedus Giorgisvs
Negelle Arsi
COMPLETEDEthiopia · Premier League · 10/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kedus Giorgis · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kedus Giorgis 1-1 Negelle Arsi
Original prediction
Kedus Giorgis
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 22:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.66 | 33.8% | 37.1% | 3.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.66 | 33.8% | 30.0% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 2.77 | 32.4% | 32.9% | 0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.66 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Kedus Giorgis
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Kedus Giorgis has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00