Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kazma · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kazma 1-1 Al Arabi
Original prediction
Kazma
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 17:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.50 | 35.7% | 47.3% | 11.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 27.8% | 24.7% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 2.44 | 36.6% | 27.9% | -8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.21 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Kazma
Probability
47.3%
Model confidence
47.3%
Kazma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KazmaWDWWD
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Al ArabiDLDLL
GF 9 · GA 15 · avg 1.80/3.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
KazmaAl Arabi
66.7Attack77.8
66.7Defence11.1
77.8Form22.2
72.8Power40.2
2.32xG1.29