Kazakhstanvs
Moldova
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 10/2/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kazakhstan · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kazakhstan 1-2 Moldova
Original prediction
Kazakhstan
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 50.1% | 42.2% | -7.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.9% | 28.8% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 4.47 | 21.0% | 29.0% | 7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Kazakhstan
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Kazakhstan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80