Kayserisporvs
Manisa F.K.
COMPLETEDTurkey · 1. Lig · 10/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kayserispor · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kayserispor 3-2 Manisa F.K.
Original prediction
Kayserispor
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 03:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 65.9% | 52.2% | -13.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.49 | 20.3% | 25.7% | 5.4 pts |
| Away | 6.58 | 13.8% | 22.1% | 8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Kayserispor
Probability
52.2%
Model confidence
52.2%
Kayserispor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60