Kauno Žalgirisvs
Suduva Marijampole
COMPLETEDLithuania · A Lyga · 9/9/2026, 3:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kauno Žalgiris · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Kauno Žalgiris 0-0 Suduva Marijampole, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Kauno Žalgiris 5-1 Suduva Marijampole
Original prediction
Kauno Žalgiris
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 46.4% | 44.6% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 27.8% | 29.2% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.48 | 25.8% | 26.2% | 0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.93 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.8 pts
Projected Score
Kauno Žalgiris 0–0 Suduva Marijampole
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Kauno Žalgiris
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Kauno Žalgiris has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40