Kataller Toyamavs
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
COMPLETEDJapan · J2 League · 10/11/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kataller Toyama · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kataller Toyama 1-1 Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Original prediction
Kataller Toyama
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 43.5% | 45.8% | 2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 27.2% | 27.5% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.13 | 29.3% | 26.7% | -2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.37 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Kataller Toyama
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Kataller Toyama has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40