Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fernwald · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Kassel are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 3.00 conceded, while Fernwald are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Fernwald hold a 21.2-point power-rating edge (27.6 v 48.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.0% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Fernwald holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 68% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fernwald
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Fernwald has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 15 · avg 2.20/3.00
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20