Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aktobe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kaspiy 1-2 Aktobe
Original prediction
Aktobe
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.65 | 34.5% | 29.3% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.6% | 28.2% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.35 | 38.8% | 42.5% | 3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–114%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Aktobe
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Aktobe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KaspiyLWDDL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AktobeWLWDL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
KaspiyAktobe
34.7Attack47.2
52.8Defence61.1
36.1Form52.8
43.9Power55.1
0.84xG1.26