Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kasımpaşa · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kasımpaşa 2-2 Amed
Original prediction
Kasımpaşa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 40.5% | 37.4% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 29.1% | 28.7% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.08 | 30.4% | 33.9% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.22 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Kasımpaşa
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Kasımpaşa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KasımpaşaDWDWD
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
AmedWLWWD
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
KasımpaşaAmed
33.3Attack55.6
77.8Defence66.7
55.6Form66.7
59.1Power63.1
1.22xG1.18