Kashiwa Reysolvs
Gamba Osaka
COMPLETEDJapan · J-League Cup · 10/3/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kashiwa Reysol · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kashiwa Reysol 5-4 Gamba Osaka
Original prediction
Kashiwa Reysol
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.55 | 59.1% | 39.7% | -19.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.11 | 22.3% | 29.0% | 6.7 pts |
| Away | 4.94 | 18.6% | 31.3% | 12.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Kashiwa Reysol
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Kashiwa Reysol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20