Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs
Wednesday, 15 July 2026Last updated 10:04
Kashima

Kashima

Home
W
50
Full time
Vegalta Sendai

Vegalta Sendai

Away
L
GoalVio prediction
Friendly match
Very hard to predict

Friendly match — very hard to predict, not included in accuracy.

Draw35%
Kashima34%
Vegalta Sendai31%
Prediction missed— Result: Kashima
Win probability
Kashima
34%
Draw
35%
Vegalta Sendai
31%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Kashima
100
Vegalta Sendai
9
Defence
Kashima
91
Vegalta Sendai
0
Momentum
Kashima
100
Vegalta Sendai
0
Danger (xG)
Kashima
4.50
Vegalta Sendai
0.00
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 2.17 xG for Kashima and 1.10 xG for Vegalta Sendai — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 1-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with Kashima holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's meaningful attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 3.27 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-1 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. The probability grid is dominated by scorelines of two goals or fewer, with the over 2.5 market requiring a result that sits outside the model's most likely outcomes.

xG for (Kashima)
4.50
avg per match
xG for (Vegalta Sendai)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Kashima)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Vegalta Sendai)
4.50
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
KashimaKashima
WW
Vegalta SendaiVegalta Sendai
LW

Probability breakdown

35% confidence
Kashima34%
Draw35%
Vegalta Sendai31%

Draw leads with 35% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Kashima vs Vegalta Sendai: Model Points to a Closely-Fought Draw

Kashima host Vegalta Sendai in Friendlies Clubs. Kashima have recorded WWWLWW in recent matches while Vegalta Sendai arrive with a run of LWWLWL. These sides have met 10 times recently, averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Why GoalVio backs this

The xG model projects 2.17 for Kashima and 1.10 for Vegalta Sendai. The gap of 1.07 is not large enough to decisively separate the sides — neither team is creating chances at a level that justifies a clear winner projection.

Biggest risk: null have won 5 of their last 10 matches — a run of form the model acknowledges but cannot fully override. If null carry that momentum into this fixture and score first, the upset probability rises significantly above what the headline verdict suggests.

Risk factors

  • Kashima have been conceding 1.82 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
  • The head-to-head record is competitive — the underdog has won 8 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Head to head

Kashima 1Draws 00 Vegalta Sendai
Avg goals: 5.0
15 Jul 2026
Kashima
W50
Vegalta Sendai

Recent form

Kashima

Kashima

W
vs Vegalta Sendai
15 Jul 2026
50
W
@ JEF United Chiba
17 May 2026
20
Vegalta Sendai

Vegalta Sendai

L
@ Kashima
15 Jul 2026
05
W
@ Shonan Bellmare
16 May 2026
20

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Kashima vs Vegalta Sendai?

GoalVio's model predicts a draw with 35% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Kashima vs Vegalta Sendai?

A predicted scoreline has not yet been generated for this fixture.

Will both teams score in Kashima vs Vegalta Sendai?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Kashima vs Vegalta Sendai?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more