Kashimavs
V-varen Nagasaki
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 10/17/2026, 6:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kashima · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kashima 2-0 V-varen Nagasaki
Original prediction
Kashima
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.51 | 62.0% | 65.1% | 3.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.25 | 22.0% | 18.1% | -3.9 pts |
| Away | 5.82 | 16.1% | 16.8% | 0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–18%
Predicted outcome
Kashima
Probability
65.1%
Model confidence
65.1%
Kashima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KashimaWWWDW
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
V-varen NagasakiDLLDW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
KashimaV-varen Nagasaki
70.4Attack40.7
40.7Defence40.7
59.3Form33.3
58.8Power40.7
2.68xG1.24