Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kashima · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Kashima are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Urawa are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLLDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Kashima hold a 51.3-point power-rating edge (83.3 v 32.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.7% in the J1 League, while Kashima holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Kashima
Probability
53.9%
Model confidence
10.7%
Kashima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60