Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Karvan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Karvan 3-0 Zaqatala
Original prediction
Karvan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 60.3% | 41.5% | -18.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.94 | 22.7% | 26.4% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 5.27 | 17.0% | 32.1% | 15.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Karvan
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Karvan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KarvanLWDLL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ZaqatalaWDWLL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
KarvanZaqatala
50.0Attack83.3
66.7Defence66.7
50.0Form66.7
54.2Power71.2
1.33xG1.39