Karpatyvs
Shakhtar Donetsk
COMPLETEDUkraine · Premier League · 9/5/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shakhtar Donetsk · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Karpaty 1-2 Shakhtar Donetsk
Original prediction
Shakhtar Donetsk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.71 | 19.7% | 21.2% | 1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 24.9% | 25.8% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 1.67 | 55.5% | 52.9% | -2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk
Probability
52.9%
Model confidence
52.9%
Shakhtar Donetsk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 2 · avg 2.80/0.40
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40