Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rågsved · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Karlslund 2-4 Rågsved
Original prediction
Rågsved
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.36 | 26.9% | 31.1% | 4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 23.6% | 20.5% | -3.2 pts |
| Away | 1.83 | 49.5% | 48.4% | -1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.83 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Rågsved
Probability
48.4%
Model confidence
48.4%
Rågsved has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KarlslundLWDWL
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
RågsvedWWDLW
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
KarlslundRågsved
50.7Attack65.3
44.0Defence46.7
41.3Form56.0
46.7Power57.5
1.73xG2.12