Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Forward · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Karlslund 2-2 Forward
Original prediction
Forward
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.63 | 24.8% | 27.0% | 2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 23.9% | 26.1% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 1.76 | 51.3% | 46.9% | -4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.77 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Forward
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
46.9%
Forward has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KarlslundWLDWW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
ForwardWWLLL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
KarlslundForward
47.0Attack63.6
47.0Defence60.6
40.9Form63.6
46.6Power62.9
1.16xG1.99