Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nosaby · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-3 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 0-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Karlshamn 3-1 Nosaby
Original prediction
Nosaby
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.03 | 29.8% | 15.5% | -14.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.1% | 16.0% | -9.1 pts |
| Away | 2.01 | 45.0% | 68.5% | 23.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
23.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–39%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–38%
Predicted outcome
Nosaby
Probability
68.5%
Model confidence
68.5%
Nosaby has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KarlshamnLLLDL
GF 5 · GA 17 · avg 1.00/3.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
NosabyWLWWL
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
KarlshamnNosaby
33.3Attack64.8
20.4Defence44.4
14.8Form53.7
26.0Power53.4
1.12xG3.14