Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Karlberg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Karlberg 3-3 Vasalund
Original prediction
Karlberg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 15:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.51 | 35.9% | 46.5% | 10.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 26.4% | 21.9% | -4.6 pts |
| Away | 2.39 | 37.7% | 31.6% | -6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.41 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Karlberg
Probability
46.5%
Model confidence
46.5%
Karlberg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KarlbergWDLLW
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
VasalundLWLDL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
KarlbergVasalund
44.4Attack48.6
43.1Defence30.6
40.3Form37.5
44.1Power40.7
2.03xG1.53