Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arlanda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Karlberg 1-0 Arlanda
Original prediction
Arlanda
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.46 | 36.6% | 30.5% | -6.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 25.7% | 25.3% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.39 | 37.7% | 44.1% | 6.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Arlanda
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
Arlanda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KarlbergLDLWW
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
ArlandaLWWLL
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
KarlbergArlanda
0.0Attack100.0
33.3Defence50.0
11.1Form50.0
19.9Power62.5
1.35xG2.07