Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Karela · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Karela 1-0 Dreams
Original prediction
Karela
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 16:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 57.4% | 49.3% | -8.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.2% | 27.5% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 5.82 | 15.5% | 23.2% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Karela
Probability
49.3%
Model confidence
49.3%
Karela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KarelaLWLWL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
DreamsDLDLL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
KarelaDreams
40.0Attack33.3
53.3Defence40.0
40.0Form13.3
46.4Power32.2
1.39xG0.86