Karacabey Belediyesporvs
Ankaragücü
COMPLETEDTurkey · 2. Lig · 9/27/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Karacabey Belediyespor · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Karacabey Belediyespor 1-4 Ankaragücü
Original prediction
Karacabey Belediyespor
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.77 | 32.5% | 40.8% | 8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 26.7% | 27.9% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.21 | 40.8% | 31.3% | -9.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Karacabey Belediyespor
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Karacabey Belediyespor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00