Karacabey Belediyesporvs
1461 Trabzon FK
COMPLETEDTurkey · 2. Lig · 10/11/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Karacabey Belediyespor · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Karacabey Belediyespor 2-2 1461 Trabzon FK
Original prediction
Karacabey Belediyespor
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 03:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 37.8% | 35.6% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 26.7% | 28.8% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.53 | 35.5% | 35.6% | 0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.37 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Karacabey Belediyespor
Probability
35.6%
Model confidence
35.6%
Karacabey Belediyespor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60