Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zira · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kapaz 1-1 Zira
Original prediction
Zira
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.19 | 21.6% | 34.8% | 13.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 27.6% | 28.8% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 1.77 | 50.9% | 36.4% | -14.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.27 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Zira
Probability
36.4%
Model confidence
36.4%
Zira has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KapazWDWLW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ZiraDLDLW
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
KapazZira
33.3Attack38.1
61.1Defence57.1
55.6Form52.4
52.3Power50.3
1.09xG0.92