Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sumqayıt · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kapaz 1-1 Sumqayıt
Original prediction
Sumqayıt
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.45 | 36.7% | 33.6% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 29.3% | 28.5% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.65 | 34.0% | 37.9% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.07 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Sumqayıt
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Sumqayıt has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KapazWLWWL
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
SumqayıtDLLLL
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
KapazSumqayıt
36.1Attack16.7
38.0Defence50.0
32.4Form0.0
37.6Power26.7
1.14xG1.37